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"ĐỪNG NHGE NHỮNG GÌ CỘNG SẢN NÓI HÃY NHÌN KỸ NHỮNG GÌ CỘNG SẢN LAM" (Nguyễn Văn Thiệu)

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Hồn Việt Quốc Kỳ

Vietnam as Tunisia in waiting

Successful rebellions are inherently unpredictable. The middle-class revolt that recently toppled the Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali regime in Tunisia can only be explained in retrospect; hardly anyone, apparently, saw it coming.

Analysts now are pointing to the combustible mix of too many educated young people and too few jobs, a "kleptocratic elite", and the failure of the state security apparatus to defend the regime when the chips were down.

Other analysts are debating whether the Tunisian example will be replicated in neighboring Arab nations, including Algeria, Egypt



and Yemen, and if so, how ought the world's democracies respond to the turmoil.

Foreign ministries from Washington, London, Tokyo to Paris and Berlin are trying to guess what posture is most likely to preserve their governments' ability to find common ground to work with whoever ends up on top of the heap if a revolt succeeds, yet not upset current relationships if the incumbents weather the challenge.

Read the full story here.